Spatiotemporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of habitat quality in the Yellow River Basin

Introduction: The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is not only a vital area for maintaining ecological security but also a key area for China’s economic and social development. Understanding its land-use change trends and habitat quality change patterns is essential for regional ecological conservation and effective resource allocation.

Methods: This study used the patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models to analyze and predict the spatial and temporal trends of habitat quality in the YRB from 2000 to 2030 under natural development (ND) and ecological conservation and high-quality development (ECD) scenarios. The PLUS model was used to predict land-use change in 2030 under different scenarios, after which the InVEST model was used to obtain the habitat quality distribution characteristics from the 2000–2030 period.

Results: (1) The mean values of habitat quality in the YRB in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 0.6849, 0.6992, and 0.7001, respectively. The mean habitat quality values were moderately high. Spatial distribution characteristics were high in the west and low in the east and along the water. In 2030, habitat quality (0.6993) started to decline under ND, whereas under ECD, there was an indication of substantial improvement in habitat quality (0.7186). (2) The mean habitat degradation values in 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 0.0223, 0.0219, and 0.0231, respectively. The level of habitat degradation showed a decreasing trend, followed by an increasing trend with a stable spatial distribution pattern. The mean level of habitat degradation in 2030 (0.0241) continued to increase under ND, while a substantial decrease in the level of habitat degradation occurred under ECD (0.0214), suggesting that the level of habitat degradation could be effectively contained under the ECD scenario. (3) During the study period, the conversion of building land—both negative and positive—had the most pronounced impact on habitat quality per unit area. Further, the conversion of grassland was shown to be a key land transformation that may either lead to the deterioration or improvement of the ecological environment. The results provide scientifific theoretical support and a decision basis for ecological conservation and the high-quality development of the YRB.